Outsiders on the Rise: New Parties and Party Competition in Multilevel Systems

Avery Lord — Thu, 18 Jun 2026 17:13:07 +0000

Outsiders on the Rise: New Parties and Party Competition in Multilevel Systems Avery Lord Thu, 06/18/2026 - 11:13

By: Christopher Jorde

Abstract:

Recent elections in Europe have seen the explosive growth of new parties, many of which have not only won seats in parliament but have become leaders in government. Yet support for new parties remains a puzzle. If voter expectations about which parties are likely to win or lose solidify with each passing election, then new parties should be less likely to emerge over time. This project explores three questions related to new parties: What explains support for new parties? How do new parties compete with mainstream parties? And why do voters support some new parties but not others?

In this project I argue that multilevel systems present new parties with opportunities to compete with mainstream parties and win voter support. First, when regional or European elections have more permissive electoral institutions, and when regions have more governing authority, new parties will receive a greater share of votes. Having established an electoral foothold at the regional or European level, new parties may better compete in subsequent national elections. Second, multilevel systems open up dimensions of conflict that new parties can leverage to compete with mainstream parties. Specifically, new parties can distinguish themselves by focusing on issues of European integration in European Parliament elections and issues of regional autonomy in regional elections. Third, regional and European elections enable voters to support new parties on the basis of attitudes toward European integration or regional autonomy. Furthermore, if a new party performs well in a European or regional election, voters may increasingly view that party as viable in mainstream party competition and continue to support that party in later national elections. Using a variety of cross-national election data, party manifestos data, and individual cross-sectional and long-term panel surveys I find robust support for these arguments.

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