Jaroslav Tir

Latent territorial threat and democratic regime reversals

Avery Lord — Wed, 17 Jun 2026 18:55:28 +0000

Latent territorial threat and democratic regime reversals Avery Lord Wed, 06/17/2026 - 12:55

Latent territorial threat and democratic regime reversals

By: Johannes Karreth, Jaroslav Tir, Douglas M Gibler

Abstract:

Why do some democracies revert to non-democratic forms of governance? We develop an explanation of democratic reversals that emphasizes the influence of states’ external border relations on domestic politics. Latent threats to a state territory encourage political centralization of authority in the executive to defend against danger to the homeland. Latent territorial threat also facilitates the construction and maintenance of large land armies to fight threatening neighbors. Combined, latent territorial threat increases leaders’ domestic power, weakens democratic institutions, encourages other conditions threatening democratic survival, and, ultimately, leads to democratic reversals. Synthesizing prior research on territorial conflict, we generate a quantitative, continuous measure of latent territorial threat against all democracies with contiguous neighbors from 1946 to 2016, using Bayesian estimation. Empirical tests accounting for measurement uncertainty and other common determinants of reversals as well as brief reviews of individual cases of reversal provide robust evidence that democracy failed at higher rates in countries facing high levels of threats to their territory from neighbors. Our study implies that a complete account of the development of democratic institutions should emphasize that domestic factors alone fall short of explaining why democracies fail.

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Does threat from COVID-19 stimulate attitudes amenable to public cooperation? Evidence from India

Avery Lord — Wed, 17 Jun 2026 18:53:34 +0000

Does threat from COVID-19 stimulate attitudes amenable to public cooperation? Evidence from India Avery Lord Wed, 06/17/2026 - 12:53

Does threat from COVID-19 stimulate attitudes amenable to public cooperation? Evidence from India

By: Shane P Singh, Jaroslav Tir

Abstract:

Especially before the development of vaccines, efforts to combat the spread of COVID-19 relied heavily on public cooperation with health directives that highlight the virus’ existential threat. In this article, we test whether exposure to information about threat from the pandemic induces in individuals positive orientations towards their compatriots and society – thus providing the micro-foundations of the ‘we are in this together’ sentiment that would bolster public cooperation. Fielding a pre-registered experiment in the early days of the pandemic in India, we randomised exposure to a vignette referencing the biological threat. We find no evidence that treatment increased positive attitudes towards one compatriots or society. If anything, the treatment had a negative effect, which bodes poorly for efforts to obtain public cooperation in the fight against the virus.

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Consent in peacekeeping

Avery Lord — Wed, 17 Jun 2026 18:50:56 +0000

Consent in peacekeeping Avery Lord Wed, 06/17/2026 - 12:50

Consent in peacekeeping

By: Timothy Passmore, Johannes Karreth, Jaroslav Tir

Abstract:

In September 2007, amid widespread armed attacks by rebel groups against civilians in eastern
Chad and the Central African Republic, the UN Security Council approved the establishment
of a peacekeeping mission, MINURCAT, aimed at curbing the violence and strengthening the
rule of law. Significant UN resources were directed toward the mission, including an author-
ized strength of over 6000 uniformed and civilian personnel, and total estimated expenses
amounting to $1.39 billion (UN Department of Peace Operations n.d.). Yet, after less than
three years, the government of Chad indicated its desire for the UN to completely withdraw,
which was completed by the end of 2010. From the perspective of the UN and the international
community, the mission was considered a failure, where only limited successes were achieved
in carrying out the operational mandate. From the outset, the government of Chad had agreed
to the mission only reluctantly and subsequently sought to restrict the capacity of the mission
to deliver peace. This resulted in both a mission devoid of a political mandate that would be
essential to procuring a resolution to the conflict, as well as a host state highly resistant to the
mission presence (Johnstone 2011, p. 171)....

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Threat‐Inducing Violent Events Exacerbate Social Desirability Bias in Survey Responses

Avery Lord — Wed, 17 Jun 2026 18:49:25 +0000

Threat‐Inducing Violent Events Exacerbate Social Desirability Bias in Survey Responses Avery Lord Wed, 06/17/2026 - 12:49

Threat‐Inducing Violent Events Exacerbate Social Desirability Bias in Survey Responses

By: Shane P Singh, Jaroslav Tir

Abstract:

A key challenge in survey research is social desirability bias: respondents feel pressured to report acceptable attitudes and behaviors. Building on established findings, we argue that threat‐inducing violent events are a heretofore unaccounted for driver of social desirability bias. We probe this argument by investigating whether fatal terror attacks lead respondents to overreport past electoral participation, a well‐known and measurable result of social desirability bias. Using a cross‐national analysis and natural and survey experiments, we show that fatal terror attacks generate turnout overreporting. This highlights that threat‐inducing violent events induce social desirability, that researchers need to account for the timing of survey fieldwork vis‐à‐vis such events, and that some of the previously reported post‐violent conflict increases in political participation may be more apparent than real.

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International third parties and the implementation of comprehensive peace agreements after civil war

Avery Lord — Wed, 17 Jun 2026 18:47:10 +0000

International third parties and the implementation of comprehensive peace agreements after civil war Avery Lord Wed, 06/17/2026 - 12:47

International third parties and the implementation of comprehensive peace agreements after civil war

By: Johannes Karreth, Jason Quinn, Madhav Joshi, Jaroslav Tir

Abstract:

Comprehensive peace agreements (CPAs) are the most impactful negotiated settlements ending civil wars, but their implementation varies across post-conflict countries and over time. To explain varying implementation, this study identifies central challenges in CPA implementation and suggests that international third parties are uniquely positioned to overcome them. (1) IGOs with high economic leverage, and (2) prior foreign aid both set incentives that reduce domestic barriers to implementation. Quantitative evidence on the implementation of CPAs from 1989-2015 supports this argument. Both post-conflict countries’ participation in IGOs with high economic leverage and higher volumes of prior foreign aid are associated with higher rates of CPA implementation. Multiple estimation approaches, including instrumental variables, support this finding. Case evidence from the 2007 CPA in Ivory Coast tracks the processes by which IGOs and donors help overcome stakeholder resistance and facilitate implementation. This finding encourages more concerted efforts by policymakers to advance CPA implementation.

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The Role of Foreign Aid in Procuring Civil War Party Consent to Peacekeeping

Avery Lord — Wed, 17 Jun 2026 18:45:11 +0000

The Role of Foreign Aid in Procuring Civil War Party Consent to Peacekeeping Avery Lord Wed, 06/17/2026 - 12:45

The Role of Foreign Aid in Procuring Civil War Party Consent to Peacekeeping

By: Johannes Karreth, Timothy JA Passmore, Jaroslav Tir

Abstract:

Successful peacekeeping depends heavily on the conflict parties providing unrestricted consent to the intervention. Consent is, however, often withheld or limited by one or more parties who calculate a higher cost to peace than to continued fighting. We highlight the role of international economic incentives in the form of foreign development aid in overcoming hurdles to obtaining consent. We argue that past aid sends a credible signal of future, post-conflict material benefits if the belligerents work toward peace. This conditionality of future benefits thereby incentivizes the belligerents to work toward peace and stability, including providing unrestricted consent to peacekeeping missions. Analyses of 119 post-Cold War civil wars and a brief narrative of East Timor demonstrate that foreign aid significantly and substantially increases the likelihood of unrestricted consent. The findings have implications for the literature on international influences on domestic political contestation and for research on the effectiveness of peacekeeping operations.

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Less human than human: Threat, language, and relative dehumanization

Avery Lord — Wed, 17 Jun 2026 18:41:27 +0000

Less human than human: Threat, language, and relative dehumanization Avery Lord Wed, 06/17/2026 - 12:41

Less human than human: Threat, language, and relative dehumanization

By: Shane P Singh, Jaroslav Tir

Abstract:

A government's decision to communicate in a native tongue rather than a commonly used and understood but non-native language can prompt perception through an ethnically-tinted lens. While native-language communication is commonplace and typically benign, we argue that conveying a threat posed by an outgroup in a native tongue can trigger dehumanizing attitudes. We conducted a pre-registered survey experiment focusing on attitudes toward Muslim and Chinese people in India to test our expectations. In our two-stage design, we randomly assigned respondents to a survey language (Hindi or English) and, after that, to threat-provoking or control conditions. While Muslims and China are associated with recent violence against India, the government has routinely portrayed only the former as threatening. Likely due to this divergence, Hindi language assignment alone triggers Muslim dehumanization. Indians' more innocuous views of Chinese are responsive to exogenously-induced threat, particularly when conveyed in Hindi.

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Civil war mediation in the shadow of IGOs: The path to comprehensive peace agreements

Avery Lord — Wed, 17 Jun 2026 17:59:39 +0000

Civil war mediation in the shadow of IGOs: The path to comprehensive peace agreements Avery Lord Wed, 06/17/2026 - 11:59

Civil war mediation in the shadow of IGOs: The path to comprehensive peace agreements

By: Johannes Karreth, Jaroslav Tir, Jason Quinn, Madhav Joshi

Abstract:

Recent research shows that comprehensive peace agreements (CPAs) are effective in ending civil wars and improving post-conflict conditions, but CPAs emerge in only a fraction of civil wars. This study provides systematic evidence about the origins of CPAs and the role of international actors in facilitating their signing. We argue that mediation is more likely to be successful and that CPAs are more likely to emerge in those civil war countries that are members in a higher number of IGOs with high economic leverage. Using their financial and institutional leverage, these IGOs can help the combatants overcome the credible commitment problems associated with entering into mediation, and with making sufficient concessions and compromises to reach and sign a CPA. Analyzing all intrastate armed conflicts from 1989 to 2011, we find that a conflict country memberships in IGOs with high economic leverage increase the odds of (1) mediation occurring and (2) mediation subsequently leading to the signing of CPAs. This finding is robust to common sources of spurious relationships between international institutions and the behavior of conflict parties. Participating in IGOs with high economic leverage carries important positive consequences for civil war management and enhances the impact of mediation on getting conflict parties to sign CPAs.

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Support for the use of military force to prevent secession: the case of Scottish independence

Avery Lord — Wed, 17 Jun 2026 17:52:01 +0000

Support for the use of military force to prevent secession: the case of Scottish independence Avery Lord Wed, 06/17/2026 - 11:52

Support for the use of military force to prevent secession: the case of Scottish independence

By: Jaroslav Tir, Shane P Singh, Xiaojun Li

Abstract:

Secessions are often understood to be inherently war-prone, perhaps because individuals have been found to strongly support governments using military force to defend their country's territorial integrity. To assess the extent to which individuals actually support using military force against co-citizens, in a survey experiment we randomly assign English and Welsh respondents to a control condition listing the United Kingdom's constituent countries and overseas territories or to a treatment scenario describing a unilateral Scottish secession. Asked about the extent to which they would support the use of military force to defend the U.K.'s territorial integrity, respondents are significantly more supportive of the use of force in the control condition. Further analyses reveal men to be more hawkish than women in the control condition, while the gender gap disappears in the Scotland condition, with men's attitudes significantly mollified. Nationalist respondents, meanwhile, are relatively supportive of the use of force regardless of treatment status. Our findings thus caution that the literature's argument about the war proneness of secessions may be overly reliant on post hoc government decisions rather than ex ante individual-level attitudes.

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From Harmony to Civil War: When Language Turns Deadly

Anonymous — Wed, 28 Aug 2024 17:57:45 +0000

From Harmony to Civil War: When Language Turns Deadly Anonymous (not verified) Wed, 08/28/2024 - 11:57

Jaroslav Tir, professor in the Political Science Department here at �Ͼ�Ʒ��, explores why multiethnic countries, that once lived in harmony like Yugoslavia, devolve into violent ethnic conflicts. His research, coauthored with Shane Singh, focuses on how not just the content, but the language used by governing authorities to communicate about how ethnic minorities can exacerbate tensions and lead to dehumanization.

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