2024

The Role of Foreign Aid in Procuring Civil War Party Consent to Peacekeeping

Avery Lord — Wed, 17 Jun 2026 18:45:11 +0000

The Role of Foreign Aid in Procuring Civil War Party Consent to Peacekeeping Avery Lord Wed, 06/17/2026 - 12:45

The Role of Foreign Aid in Procuring Civil War Party Consent to Peacekeeping

By: Johannes Karreth, Timothy JA Passmore, Jaroslav Tir

Abstract:

Successful peacekeeping depends heavily on the conflict parties providing unrestricted consent to the intervention. Consent is, however, often withheld or limited by one or more parties who calculate a higher cost to peace than to continued fighting. We highlight the role of international economic incentives in the form of foreign development aid in overcoming hurdles to obtaining consent. We argue that past aid sends a credible signal of future, post-conflict material benefits if the belligerents work toward peace. This conditionality of future benefits thereby incentivizes the belligerents to work toward peace and stability, including providing unrestricted consent to peacekeeping missions. Analyses of 119 post-Cold War civil wars and a brief narrative of East Timor demonstrate that foreign aid significantly and substantially increases the likelihood of unrestricted consent. The findings have implications for the literature on international influences on domestic political contestation and for research on the effectiveness of peacekeeping operations.

Off

Traditional

White

Less human than human: Threat, language, and relative dehumanization

Avery Lord — Wed, 17 Jun 2026 18:41:27 +0000

Less human than human: Threat, language, and relative dehumanization Avery Lord Wed, 06/17/2026 - 12:41

Less human than human: Threat, language, and relative dehumanization

By: Shane P Singh, Jaroslav Tir

Abstract:

A government's decision to communicate in a native tongue rather than a commonly used and understood but non-native language can prompt perception through an ethnically-tinted lens. While native-language communication is commonplace and typically benign, we argue that conveying a threat posed by an outgroup in a native tongue can trigger dehumanizing attitudes. We conducted a pre-registered survey experiment focusing on attitudes toward Muslim and Chinese people in India to test our expectations. In our two-stage design, we randomly assigned respondents to a survey language (Hindi or English) and, after that, to threat-provoking or control conditions. While Muslims and China are associated with recent violence against India, the government has routinely portrayed only the former as threatening. Likely due to this divergence, Hindi language assignment alone triggers Muslim dehumanization. Indians' more innocuous views of Chinese are responsive to exogenously-induced threat, particularly when conveyed in Hindi.

Off

Traditional

White

Civil war mediation in the shadow of IGOs: The path to comprehensive peace agreements

Avery Lord — Wed, 17 Jun 2026 17:59:39 +0000

Civil war mediation in the shadow of IGOs: The path to comprehensive peace agreements Avery Lord Wed, 06/17/2026 - 11:59

Civil war mediation in the shadow of IGOs: The path to comprehensive peace agreements

By: Johannes Karreth, Jaroslav Tir, Jason Quinn, Madhav Joshi

Abstract:

Recent research shows that comprehensive peace agreements (CPAs) are effective in ending civil wars and improving post-conflict conditions, but CPAs emerge in only a fraction of civil wars. This study provides systematic evidence about the origins of CPAs and the role of international actors in facilitating their signing. We argue that mediation is more likely to be successful and that CPAs are more likely to emerge in those civil war countries that are members in a higher number of IGOs with high economic leverage. Using their financial and institutional leverage, these IGOs can help the combatants overcome the credible commitment problems associated with entering into mediation, and with making sufficient concessions and compromises to reach and sign a CPA. Analyzing all intrastate armed conflicts from 1989 to 2011, we find that a conflict country memberships in IGOs with high economic leverage increase the odds of (1) mediation occurring and (2) mediation subsequently leading to the signing of CPAs. This finding is robust to common sources of spurious relationships between international institutions and the behavior of conflict parties. Participating in IGOs with high economic leverage carries important positive consequences for civil war management and enhances the impact of mediation on getting conflict parties to sign CPAs.

Off

Traditional

White

Hope Springs Eternal?

Avery Lord — Wed, 17 Jun 2026 17:42:09 +0000

Hope Springs Eternal? Avery Lord Wed, 06/17/2026 - 11:42

Hope Springs Eternal?

By: Steve Vanderheiden

Abstract:

As Darrel Moellendorf observes in Mobilizing Hope, climate change and poverty are intertwined in various ways, including the facts that climate impacts threaten to exacerbate global poverty as well as that financial resources devoted to climate change mitigation could be diverted from being used to alleviate global poverty. A decade ago, concerns about the latter motivated ‘additionality’rules that prohibited donor countries from diverting or merely rebadging development aid as financing for climate change mitigation or adaptation, acknowledging the tension. Moellendorf here moves beyond it and aims to integrate climate imperatives with those of development in a more symbiotic or mutually reinforcing relationship, rather than accepting the competition between them that was originally envisaged.

Off

Traditional

White

Incorporating Equitable Carbon Access into Carbon Taxes

Avery Lord — Wed, 17 Jun 2026 17:39:42 +0000

Incorporating Equitable Carbon Access into Carbon Taxes Avery Lord Wed, 06/17/2026 - 11:39

Incorporating Equitable Carbon Access into Carbon Taxes

By: Steve Vanderheiden

Abstract:

As climate change mitigation measures, carbon taxes ought to assign the burdens associated with decarbonization equitably and should at least aim to avoid perpetuating wide inequities in carbon access. While several popular carbon taxation schemes incorporate “feebate” or other redistribute adjustments designed to offset the regressive impacts of rising energy costs, seeking to neutralize the burden-sharing inequity of such policies, they can also contribute to inequities in carbon access, which constitute a second kind of inequity that offsetting schemes may not neutralize. Attention to resource-sharing principles that capture this latter equity objective suggests a comparison between downstream rationing schemes that allocate carbon access among persons and at the point of consumption, thereby instantiating resource-sharing equity, and the carbon pricing schemes that require extensive modifications in order to approximate such equity ideals. In this paper, I compare the two for purposes of focusing on this neglected second equity concern in the design of carbon pricing schemes like carbon taxes as well as on incorporating other justice-related advantages of downstream rationing into such a scheme.

Off

Traditional

White

Triggering populist support in Europe: How internal political efficacy shapes the effect of economic vulnerability on party preferences

Avery Lord — Wed, 17 Jun 2026 17:04:03 +0000

Triggering populist support in Europe: How internal political efficacy shapes the effect of economic vulnerability on party preferences Avery Lord Wed, 06/17/2026 - 11:04

Triggering populist support in Europe: How internal political efficacy shapes the effect of economic vulnerability on party preferences

By: Marija Verner, Pavel Bačovský, Sarah Wilson Sokhey

Abstract:

When and why do economic grievances result in support for populist parties? We address a long-standing puzzle in understanding populist voters. Existing studies have produced mixed results about how economic characteristics drive support for populist parties. We argue this is because scholars have overlooked the central importance of internal political efficacy, i.e., a belief in one ability to affect political outcomes. Using three pooled waves of the European Social Survey (ESS 2014, 2016, and 2018) with over 80,000 individual observations over time, we find that the economic determinants of populist support are contingent on internal political efficacy. Although there are reasons to think that the combined effect of economic circumstances and efficacy may be stronger on support for the populist left because of their stronger emphasis on social justice, we do not find evidence of this with the limited observations of the populist left in our sample. Critically, our findings contrast with the simplified and theoretically unsatisfying explanations of populist support we often encounter in the literature that are based solely on economic dissatisfaction. Instead, our results imply that recent trends in European politics are not only about economic issues but also about a voter belief in having agency and competence to affect change.

Off

Traditional

White

American Religion and Attitudes Toward Reparations for Slavery

Avery Lord — Wed, 17 Jun 2026 16:41:55 +0000

American Religion and Attitudes Toward Reparations for Slavery Avery Lord Wed, 06/17/2026 - 10:41

American Religion and Attitudes Toward Reparations for Slavery

By: Allan Tellis, Anand Edward Sokhey

Abstract:

As part of a history of systemic white supremacist practices in the United States, Black Americans have faced numerous forms of political marginalization. Racialized, dehumanizing practices were, of course, once rampant and codified into law in the United States. Academic circles and public-facing activists have long sought to 1) draw attention to the long-term consequences of these historical injustices, and 2) promote active efforts toward reconciliation. For example, intellectuals like Harris (1993), Fanon (1963), and West (1993) have described how institutionalized racial oppression chronically devalues and dehumanizes Black people. Such arguments, decades in the making, have at long last started to be reflected in more mainstream dis-course; this can be seen in popular culture, coverage, and discussion of things like the 1619 Project, and fights over the meaning and teaching of critical race theory (see also Stephens and Martí in this volume). There have been few concrete efforts to directly address the long-term consequences of slavery. After the Civil Rights Act of 1964, there was support for efforts to end overtly racist practices, and advocacy for more equi-table social services. But such actions have not translated into a further willingness to compensate descendants of slavery for the harm they have suffered (Torpey and Burkett 2010). The idea of reparations for slavery emerges regularly in public commentary, but it is generally dismissed as an impossi-bility. 2 Indeed, mainstream political and academic discourse might best be

Off

Traditional

White

Conclusion: The Trump Revival Moves On

Avery Lord — Wed, 17 Jun 2026 16:40:35 +0000

Conclusion: The Trump Revival Moves On Avery Lord Wed, 06/17/2026 - 10:40

Conclusion: The Trump Revival Moves On

By: Anand Edward Sokhey, Paul A Djupe

Abstract:

America Tour's stop in Branson, Missouri, on November 4, 2022 n the introductory chapter, we highlighted two essential questions that have motivated this volume: What has Trump changed about the nature of religion and politics in the United States? And what will come after him? Our contributors have offered different answers to and context for these questions. Here we summarize the major conclusions across the chapters, drawing upon their takes as we offer a set of answers to both questions. In addressing each, we look at things through the lens of the four parts of the book-that is, via 1) the changing religious landscape of the United States, 2) the advo-cacy and issue change hastened by the politicization of religion, 3) race as it intersects with aspects of religion, and 4) public and elite ideas about the role of government in advancing religion. In providing an answer for the ques-tion of what comes after Trump, we note what we have not covered in this volume and sketch out an agenda for future research.

Off

Traditional

White

Linking Primary Voter Mindsets to General Election Enthusiasm

Avery Lord — Wed, 17 Jun 2026 16:39:00 +0000

Linking Primary Voter Mindsets to General Election Enthusiasm Avery Lord Wed, 06/17/2026 - 10:39

Linking Primary Voter Mindsets to General Election Enthusiasm

By: Lauren Ratliff Santoro, Todd Makse, Anand Edward Sokhey

Abstract:

For decades scholars and pundits alike have been interested in questions about divisive presidential primaries. However, most analyses examine how campaigns cause these effects after the field has been winnowed – the implicit assumption is that negativity via events and advertising is consequential. While campaigns are likely the proximate cause of divisive primary effects, we argue that the behaviors involved—allowing displeasure with one election outcome to affect behavior in a subsequent election—demands attention to individual dispositions. Thus, we take a step back to consider what we miss when we overlook what is happening at the time of the large field, shining a spotlight on the mindsets of primary voters at the start of the process. To do so, we identify individuals who possess what we call the “divisive primary mindset,” which consists of two traits: (1) the degree to which they prefer one candidate over all others (“preference exclusivity”), and (2) the extent to which their affect for a candidate is indistinguishable from their assessment of that candidate electability (“wish fulfillment”). Using an original, nation-wide panel following Democratic voters from the 2020 primaries through the general election, we find that individuals with both these traits were more likely to be late deciders in the general, less likely to participate in activities outside of voting, and more likely to defect from Biden. We test the robustness of these findings to candidate-centric explanations and discuss the importance of understanding campaign dynamics in an era of hyper-partisanship and nationalized politics.

Off

Traditional

White

The disagreement we overlook: Examining core and acquaintance networks in a presidential primary

Avery Lord — Wed, 17 Jun 2026 16:36:04 +0000

The disagreement we overlook: Examining core and acquaintance networks in a presidential primary Avery Lord Wed, 06/17/2026 - 10:36

The disagreement we overlook: Examining core and acquaintance networks in a presidential primary

By: Lauren Ratliff Santoro, Anand E Sokhey

Abstract:

Research on interpersonal political discussion has focused on cross-party interactions. But how much disagreement exists between co-partisans in core networks, and what kinds of differences do we see in the broader acquaintance networks of co-partisans supporting different primary candidates? We use data from a nation-wide survey administered early in the 2020 Democratic nomination contest to examine these questions. In presenting descriptive analyses, we uncover substantial disagreement between Democrats—disagreement that would be missed entirely by traditional measures focused solely on whether individuals share partisanship or general election vote choice. We also find intriguing patterns when looking at the acquaintance networks of Democrats who supported different primary candidates. We discuss how studying intraparty disagreement can not only aid our understanding of how primary nomination contests mobilize distinct constituencies, but also suggest strategies for potentially mitigating interparty disagreement.

Off

Traditional

White