2023

Threat‐Inducing Violent Events Exacerbate Social Desirability Bias in Survey Responses

Avery Lord — Wed, 17 Jun 2026 18:49:25 +0000

Threat‐Inducing Violent Events Exacerbate Social Desirability Bias in Survey Responses Avery Lord Wed, 06/17/2026 - 12:49

Threat‐Inducing Violent Events Exacerbate Social Desirability Bias in Survey Responses

By: Shane P Singh, Jaroslav Tir

Abstract:

A key challenge in survey research is social desirability bias: respondents feel pressured to report acceptable attitudes and behaviors. Building on established findings, we argue that threat‐inducing violent events are a heretofore unaccounted for driver of social desirability bias. We probe this argument by investigating whether fatal terror attacks lead respondents to overreport past electoral participation, a well‐known and measurable result of social desirability bias. Using a cross‐national analysis and natural and survey experiments, we show that fatal terror attacks generate turnout overreporting. This highlights that threat‐inducing violent events induce social desirability, that researchers need to account for the timing of survey fieldwork vis‐à‐vis such events, and that some of the previously reported post‐violent conflict increases in political participation may be more apparent than real.

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International third parties and the implementation of comprehensive peace agreements after civil war

Avery Lord — Wed, 17 Jun 2026 18:47:10 +0000

International third parties and the implementation of comprehensive peace agreements after civil war Avery Lord Wed, 06/17/2026 - 12:47

International third parties and the implementation of comprehensive peace agreements after civil war

By: Johannes Karreth, Jason Quinn, Madhav Joshi, Jaroslav Tir

Abstract:

Comprehensive peace agreements (CPAs) are the most impactful negotiated settlements ending civil wars, but their implementation varies across post-conflict countries and over time. To explain varying implementation, this study identifies central challenges in CPA implementation and suggests that international third parties are uniquely positioned to overcome them. (1) IGOs with high economic leverage, and (2) prior foreign aid both set incentives that reduce domestic barriers to implementation. Quantitative evidence on the implementation of CPAs from 1989-2015 supports this argument. Both post-conflict countries’ participation in IGOs with high economic leverage and higher volumes of prior foreign aid are associated with higher rates of CPA implementation. Multiple estimation approaches, including instrumental variables, support this finding. Case evidence from the 2007 CPA in Ivory Coast tracks the processes by which IGOs and donors help overcome stakeholder resistance and facilitate implementation. This finding encourages more concerted efforts by policymakers to advance CPA implementation.

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Climate change equity and extreme vulnerability

Avery Lord — Wed, 17 Jun 2026 17:45:38 +0000

Climate change equity and extreme vulnerability Avery Lord Wed, 06/17/2026 - 11:45

Climate change equity and extreme vulnerability

By: Steve Vanderheiden

Abstract:

Climate justice scholars have called for equity to serve as a guiding ideal in international responses to climate change, typically noting that the countries and peoples most vulnerable to climate change are often among the least responsible for causing it. Typically, vulnerability to climate change has been associated with claims on international adaptation finance to facilitate vulnerability reduction, but extreme vulnerability (i.e. a very high impact on social and economic systems of climate variation) may resist standard adaptation measures. Whereas extreme vulnerability has in the climate justice literature been associated primarily with small island states or coastal regions that are vulnerable to sea level rise, in sub-Saharan Africa, it challenges the notions of how vulnerability is to be treated under equity norms, since it involves disruption to different systems and requires different kinds of remedies. Here, I consider how sub-Saharan Africa's vulnerabilities compare and contrast with those of more commonly theorised regions or peoples and propose several ways of accommodating the unique nature of its dependence on a stable climate system.

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Mitigation duties of poor and vulnerable countries

Avery Lord — Wed, 17 Jun 2026 17:43:47 +0000

Mitigation duties of poor and vulnerable countries Avery Lord Wed, 06/17/2026 - 11:43

Mitigation duties of poor and vulnerable countries

By: Steve Vanderheiden

Abstract:

Following the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, national responsibilities to contribute toward climate change mitigation have been guided by that treaty provisions that parties contribute on the basis of their ‘common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities’ (or the CBDR+RC principle). Initially, this was though to entail that developed country parties to the convention be exempted from any mitigation responsibilities, as they were under the 1997 Kyoto Protocol. This so-called ‘Bali firewall’ has remained controversial despite the Paris Agreement move away from centrally assigned and binding mitigation commitments, which has been maintained through the 2021 Glasgow Accord, with the ethical question of whether and how much such parties ought to contribute toward global mitigation efforts despite their relatively small historical or current responsibility for climate change remaining central to the normative basis of climate justice itself. This chapter explores this question, proposing and defending a framework for specifying such remedial obligations and considering the various ethical issues that such mitigation burden-sharing involves.

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Evaluating Whether a Learning by Doing Initiative Meets DEI Goals

Avery Lord — Wed, 17 Jun 2026 17:09:29 +0000

Evaluating Whether a Learning by Doing Initiative Meets DEI Goals Avery Lord Wed, 06/17/2026 - 11:09

Evaluating Whether a Learning by Doing Initiative Meets DEI Goals

By: Sarah Sokhey

Abstract:

How can we best evaluate if a learning by doing initiative is accomplishing its goals including its priorities in advancing diversity, equity, and inclusion? Drawing on my own previously co-authored published work (Nonnemacher and Sokhey 2022), I discuss how diversity and inclusion goals inspired the creation of an undergraduate research lab at a large flagship state university. Studio Lab was created to match research mentors with undergraduate students who work as paid research assistants at the �Ͼ�Ʒ��. In 2020 Studio Lab began in the Department of Political Science, in 2021 it expanded to the Division of Social Sciences, and in 2022 it expanded to the College of Arts & Sciences. I present suggestions for those wishing to advance similar initiatives. I then focus on the DEI goals associated with the lab and provide a template for evaluating whether these goals are being met.

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Learning Together: Experimental Evidence on Promoting Connections in Remote Classes

Avery Lord — Wed, 17 Jun 2026 17:07:56 +0000

Learning Together: Experimental Evidence on Promoting Connections in Remote Classes Avery Lord Wed, 06/17/2026 - 11:07

Learning Together: Experimental Evidence on Promoting Connections in Remote Classes

By: Michelle E Benedum, Sarah E Brown, Tyler Garrett, Sarah Wilson Sokhey

Abstract:

How can instructors best foster connections among students when learning is fully remote? This article describes a pedagogical experiment conducted in two large introductory political science courses at a large public university in the 2020–2021 academic year. We randomly assigned groups of students to different sets of instructions on how to study together remotely for an exam. Our strongest finding is that almost any effort by an instructor prompting students to work together helps students to feel more connected to one another; however, students often need to see and hear one another to feel connected. We find this to be tremendously encouraging—relatively easy interventions can result in significant improvements in learning.

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Cracking the Nest Egg: Comparing Pension Politics in Post-Communist Russia and Hungary–ERRATUM

Avery Lord — Wed, 17 Jun 2026 17:06:03 +0000

Cracking the Nest Egg: Comparing Pension Politics in Post-Communist Russia and Hungary–ERRATUM Avery Lord Wed, 06/17/2026 - 11:06

Cracking the Nest Egg: Comparing Pension Politics in Post-Communist Russia and Hungary–ERRATUM

By: Daria Prisiazhniuk, Sarah Wilson Sokhey

Abstract:

In addition, the authors wish to make the following amendment to their acknowledgements: We would like to thank Professor Linda Cook and Professor Michael Titterton for organising this themed section and for their invaluable comments and suggestions on the article. Daria Prisiazhniuk acknowledges that the article was prepared within the framework of the Basic Research Program at HSE University.

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The full armor of god: The mobilization of Christian nationalism in American politics

Avery Lord — Wed, 17 Jun 2026 16:48:35 +0000

The full armor of god: The mobilization of Christian nationalism in American politics Avery Lord Wed, 06/17/2026 - 10:48

The full armor of god: The mobilization of Christian nationalism in American politics

By: Paul A Djupe, Andrew R Lewis, Anand E Sokhey

Abstract:

Academic research on Christian nationalism has revealed a considerable amount about the scope of its relationships to public policy views in the US. However, work thus far has not addressed an essential question: why now? Research by the authors of this Element advances answers, showcasing how deeper engagement with 'the 3Ms' – measurement, mechanisms and mobilization – can help unpack how and why Christian nationalism has entered our politics as a partisan project. Indeed, it is difficult to understand the dynamics of Christian nationalism without reference to the parties, as it has been a worldview used to mobilize Republicans while simultaneously recruiting and demobilizing Democrats. The mechanisms of these efforts hinge on a deep desire for social dominance that is ordained by God – an order elites suggest is threatened by Democrats and 'the left.' These elite appeals can have sweeping consequences for opinion and action, including the public's support for democratic processes.

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Federal Slavery Legislation and Voting in US Gubernatorial Elections, 1840—1860

Avery Lord — Wed, 17 Jun 2026 16:46:33 +0000

Federal Slavery Legislation and Voting in US Gubernatorial Elections, 1840—1860 Avery Lord Wed, 06/17/2026 - 10:46

Federal Slavery Legislation and Voting in US Gubernatorial Elections, 1840—1860

By: Alexander Jensen, Madeline Mader, Srinivas C Parinandi, Anand Sokhey, Michael Byrd

Abstract:

The demise of the Whig Party in the 1850s has long been a subject of great attention among scholars and the general public. However, this historical development has received less attention from the vantage point of quantitative empirical analysis. Using state-level gubernatorial electoral returns from 1840 to 1860, we assess how major events like the passage of the Fugitive Slave Act/Compromise of 1850, the passage of the Kansas-Nebraska Act, and the rise of the Know Nothing Party influenced the transformation of America party system in the lead up to the Civil War. We find evidence linking the passage of the Kansas-Nebraska Act to a drop in support for Northern Whigs, Free Soilers, and (more suggestively) Northern Democrats. The results are consistent with a narrative of the Kansas-Nebraska Act unleashing fears among Free Soilers, ultimately leading to a coalescing around the new Republican Party.

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Measuring Media Freedom

Avery Lord — Wed, 17 Jun 2026 14:34:11 +0000

Measuring Media Freedom Avery Lord Wed, 06/17/2026 - 08:34

Measuring Media Freedom

By: Christopher Barrie, Neil Ketchley, Alexandra Siegel, Mosaab Bagdouri

Abstract:

The ability of news media to criticize government is a core pillar of media freedom and is often taken as evidence of meaningful democratization. Existing indices typically use scoring criteria or expert surveys to develop over-time measures of media freedom. In this article, we use the largest existing dataset of Arabic-language news to evaluate how political reporting about the government changes over the course of successful and failed democratic transitions in Egypt and Tunisia. Using entirely unsupervised ALC wordembedding techniques, we demonstrate how to generate temporally granular measurements of media criticism that closely correlate with measurements derived from expert surveys for both countries. Crucially, the technique we propose is computationally inexpensive, opensource, and cost-free—making it eminently scalable. Our work therefore points to new possibilities in the monitoring and measurement of media capture within authoritarian and transitional settings.

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