Does emergency rule help counterinsurgents? Testing the hearts and minds theories
By: Aysegul Aydin, Marie Gray
Abstract:
Is popular support necessary to win counterinsurgency wars? We argue that countries that adopt extralegal frameworks to defeat insurgencies are less likely to win counterinsurgency wars because although greater civilian control helps cut insurgent logistics, it complicates the process of winning hearts and minds among civilians. We test this argument with new data on emergency rule in the post-1918 period. We find that the timing of emergency declarations matters: Counterinsurgents that delay the declaration of such regulations signal their desperation to sift through civilian populations and find insurgents without legal ramifications, reducing civilian support, and decreasing their chances of winning.